Polymarket
Live24 normalized market records available
ATLAS-POLY-001Live market observatory
Signals worth examining.
Noise held back.
Read-only observations from independent prediction-market venues. Priority view suppresses thin contracts and groups related outcomes; every normalized contract remains available in All contracts.
Source status
Provider health
Kalshi
Live24 normalized market records available
ATLAS-KALSHI-001PredictIt
Near-live24 normalized market records available
ATLAS-PREDICTIT-001Cross-venue monitor
Observed market signals
11 results
Activity floor + one leader per event
PolymarketPolicyLive
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.
2 related outcomes grouped in Priority view.
Open source ATLAS-POLY-001
Observed price53%+43.5 ptsMaterial movement
- Bid / ask
- 52% / 54%
- Spread
- 2.0 pts
- 24H volume
- $1.0M
- Liquidity
- $77.0K
- Closes
- Jul 31, 2026
- Field coverage
- verified fields
Provider data can be delayed, revised, unavailable, or governed by different resolution rules.
PolymarketPolicyLive
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.
5 related outcomes grouped in Priority view.
Open source ATLAS-POLY-001
Observed price97%+20.8 ptsMaterial movement
- Bid / ask
- 96% / 97%
- Spread
- 0.9 pts
- 24H volume
- $479.7K
- Liquidity
- $213.6K
- Closes
- Aug 3, 2026
- Field coverage
- verified fields
Provider data can be delayed, revised, unavailable, or governed by different resolution rules.
PredictItPoliticsNear-live
How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? — 192 or fewer
The market is open and currently supplies a usable probability observation.
8 related outcomes grouped in Priority view.
Open source ATLAS-PREDICTIT-001
Observed price20%Not suppliedActive market
- Bid / ask
- 20% / 21%
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- 24H volume
- Not supplied
- Liquidity
- Not supplied
- Closes
- Not supplied
- Field coverage
- limited fields
PredictIt does not provide the same streaming activity and depth fields as the other venues; this record is labeled near-live.
PredictItPoliticsNear-live
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — Marco Rubio
The market is open and currently supplies a usable probability observation.
6 related outcomes grouped in Priority view.
Open source ATLAS-PREDICTIT-001
Observed price28%Not suppliedActive market
- Bid / ask
- 28% / 29%
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- 24H volume
- Not supplied
- Liquidity
- Not supplied
- Closes
- Not supplied
- Field coverage
- limited fields
PredictIt does not provide the same streaming activity and depth fields as the other venues; this record is labeled near-live.
PredictItPoliticsNear-live
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Gavin Newsom
The market is open and currently supplies a usable probability observation.
7 related outcomes grouped in Priority view.
Open source ATLAS-PREDICTIT-001
Observed price20%Not suppliedActive market
- Bid / ask
- 20% / 21%
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- 24H volume
- Not supplied
- Liquidity
- Not supplied
- Closes
- Not supplied
- Field coverage
- limited fields
PredictIt does not provide the same streaming activity and depth fields as the other venues; this record is labeled near-live.
PolymarketPolicyLive
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.
Open source ATLAS-POLY-001
Observed price38%+20.5 ptsMaterial movement
- Bid / ask
- 37% / 38%
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- 24H volume
- $106.4K
- Liquidity
- $73.1K
- Closes
- Aug 15, 2026
- Field coverage
- verified fields
Provider data can be delayed, revised, unavailable, or governed by different resolution rules.
PolymarketCryptoLive
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?
The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.
Open source ATLAS-POLY-001
Observed price9%-22.0 ptsMaterial movement
- Bid / ask
- 8% / 9%
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- 24H volume
- $98.5K
- Liquidity
- $16.1K
- Closes
- Aug 3, 2026
- Field coverage
- verified fields
Provider data can be delayed, revised, unavailable, or governed by different resolution rules.
PolymarketCryptoLive
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?
The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.
Open source ATLAS-POLY-001
Observed price87%+36.5 ptsMaterial movement
- Bid / ask
- 86% / 87%
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- 24H volume
- $74.3K
- Liquidity
- $21.3K
- Closes
- Aug 2, 2026
- Field coverage
- verified fields
Provider data can be delayed, revised, unavailable, or governed by different resolution rules.
PolymarketPolicyLive
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.
Open source ATLAS-POLY-001
Observed price13%-17.5 ptsMaterial movement
- Bid / ask
- 11% / 14%
- Spread
- 3.0 pts
- 24H volume
- $93.0K
- Liquidity
- $15.6K
- Closes
- Aug 15, 2026
- Field coverage
- verified fields
Provider data can be delayed, revised, unavailable, or governed by different resolution rules.
PolymarketPolicyLive
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.
1 related outcome grouped in Priority view.
Open source ATLAS-POLY-001
Observed price10%-11.0 ptsMaterial movement
- Bid / ask
- 9% / 10%
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- 24H volume
- $181.4K
- Liquidity
- $39.2K
- Closes
- Aug 15, 2026
- Field coverage
- verified fields
Provider data can be delayed, revised, unavailable, or governed by different resolution rules.
PolymarketPolicyLive
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
The observed market probability moved materially during the provider's reported period.
Open source ATLAS-POLY-001
Observed price17%-8.0 ptsMaterial movement
- Bid / ask
- 16% / 17%
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- 24H volume
- $1.9M
- Liquidity
- $961.3K
- Closes
- Dec 31, 2026
- Field coverage
- verified fields
Provider data can be delayed, revised, unavailable, or governed by different resolution rules.