Evidence and scoring standard
Methodology
Observe, corroborate, interpret, challenge
Tomlinson separates observed market data, corroborating evidence, derived interpretation, counterevidence, and unresolved uncertainty. A market price reflects participant beliefs; it does not independently establish why an event is likely.
About scores
Every confidence, quality, materiality, opportunity, risk, reliability, freshness, ranking, or alert score is a derived analytical estimate based on available data, methodology, assumptions, source quality, freshness, and system configuration at the displayed time. It is not an objective fact, market guarantee, probability of profit, recommendation, or prediction of a specific outcome.
Scores may change when sources update, markets move, methodology changes, data becomes unavailable, or errors are corrected. Production records should display the methodology version, calculation and source timestamps, data-quality and freshness status, confidence factors, known limitations, alternative interpretations, and invalidating conditions where technically available.
Evidence states
- Verified: supported by reviewed evidence at the stated time.
- Observed: directly captured without a fully corroborated explanation.
- Provisional: useful but dependent on incomplete or lower-quality evidence.
- Uncertain: material ambiguity or conflicting evidence remains.
Platform operator
Tomlinson and the Tomlinson Intelligence platform are operated by Tomlinson Intelligence, formerly operating publicly under the PredMarketAI brand.